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☆ How to lock in attractive, high-income returns from low-risk bonds in an inverted yield curve, according to a portfolio manager
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

And that's seen by the dot plot and their own inability to predict when interest rate cuts are going to happen." Related storiesWhen the yield curve is inverted, meaning short-term rates are above longer-term ones, a barbell strategy in bonds means betting on long- and short-duration bonds. And that barbell is kind of what investing in the yield curve looks like today", Huffman said. But if interest rates fall, you will be forced to reinvest in a lower interest rate environment. Avoid the 10-year or 30-year duration bonds because they will face a negative yield curve role, which could reduce their total return potential, she added.

Persons: Taylor Huffman, Huffman, it's Organizations: PT Asset Management, Business, Management's, Bond, Securities

☆ The 4% mortgage rate and other sweet offers from lenders hoping to stave off commercial real estate doom
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( Daniel Geiger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Instead a deal is now being negotiated to trim the size of the property's $240 million mortgage and potentially extend the loan at below-market interest rates in an attempt to revive the property's fortunes. The negotiations show that as hundreds of billions of dollars of commercial real estate debts come due or have already tumbled into default, deals are being arranged behind the scenes to try to stave off financial catastrophe. More borrowers and lenders have sought to buy timeThere is mounting evidence that such negotiations are taking place more widely. There have been concerns that trillions of dollars of upcoming commercial property debt maturities could inflict heavy losses that could weigh on investors and lenders across the property market and even cause systemic issues in the banking sector. The deal is part of a growing number of sales by some lenders to cut down their exposure to commercial real estate.

Persons: Realty, Michael Maturo, we'd, Maturo, Jack Terzi, Terzi, Jamie Woodwell, Stephen Buschbom, Trepp, Alan Todd, David Blumberg, Raymond Boyd, Blumberg, Robert Ivanhoe, Greenberg Traurig, Ivanhoe Organizations: New, Aareal Bank, Business, JTRE Holdings, Mortgage Bankers Association, Treasury Department, Bank of America, 601W Companies, Aon, Aon Center, Federal Reserve Locations: New York, Lower Manhattan, Manhattan, New York City, Chicago

☆ How real estate's pain could be Wall Street's gain as Blackstone, Goldman, and others dive back in.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

That's not to say predictions of a commercial real estate rebound are a sure bet. Here are four signs that support Gray's prediction that the commercial real estate market may be bottoming. (New York Community Bank had previously purchased $2.7 billion in Signature's loans and deposits, but not the real estate loans.) According to David Seifert, partner at private equity real estate firm Velocis, there are some sweet deals to be had in secondary sales of private-equity funds tied to real estate. The road aheadWhere Gray sees signs of bottoming, others think commercial real estate has much further to fall.

Persons: Warren Buffett, Buffett, Paul Getty, Getty, Steve Mnuchin —, Blackstone, Mnuchin, Donald Trump's, George Soros, John Paulson, It's, Jonathan Gray, Jim Garman, That's, Barry Sternlicht, Gray, Tracy Chen, Chen, BGO, secondaries There's, Ares, Brian King, King, David Seifert, Seifert, Velocis, Goldman Sachs, Dan McNamara, McNamara, Scott Rechler, wallop, Janet Yellen, Rechler, there's Organizations: Business, Goldman, Reuters, Starwood, Brandywine Global, Federal Reserve, . Bank, New York Community Bank, FDIC, Signature Bank, Community Bank, Fund Management, Community Preservation, New, Commercial Observer, Blackstone, Homes, Digital Realty, Polpo, RXR Locations: Blackstone, , New York, New York, BREIT, Real, Velocis

☆ Premarket stocks: Why it’s not all doom and gloom for commercial real estate
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

New York CNN —After decades of growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. I take that as a signal of a potential turn in the CMBS market in terms of the market sentiment. It’s not just all gloom and doom in the CRE market. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. OPEC+, a coalition of the world’s top oil producing countries, had announced voluntary oil cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in November.

Persons: Tracy Chen, Chen, that’s, Bell, Banks aren’t, CMBS, We’ve, they’ve, —, Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, “, Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, Eva Rothenberg, Brent, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, Brandywine, Intercontinental Exchange and Bank of America, outperformance, Fed, New York Community Bank, York Community Bank, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, OPEC, AAA Locations: New York, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, New, New York City, Richmond, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United States

☆ Life insurers binge on US financing aimed at helping housing
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Koh Gui Qing | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

It has been predominantly used by life insurers, because they need to boost their investment returns with cheap funding to meet long-term liabilities. They provide the cheap funding to banks and insurers in exchange for collateral to ensure they get their money back. Insurers are entitled to tap FHLB funding. Insurers’ borrowing from FHLBs picked up in 2008 financial crisis, as those that spread themselves thin with aggressive investments scrambled for cash. They did not explain why insurers need FHLB funding to invest in mortgages.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Ryan Donovan, CMBS, Lawrence White, White, Graphics JUICING, Cynthia Beaulieu, Cornelius Hurley, Hurley, FHLBs, ’, Michael Ericson, Jack Dolan, Koh Qui, Greg Roumeliotis, Anna Driver Organizations: REUTERS, Loan, Federal Housing Finance Agency, of Federal Home Loan, FHLBs, FHLB, National Association of Insurance, New York University, MetLife Inc, Equitable Holdings Inc, Corebridge, Brighthouse Financial, MetLife, TIAA, Equitable, Graphics, Wellington Management, Boston University School of Law, Coalition, Silicon Valley Bank, First, American, of, Insurance Coalition, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Boston, Silicon, First Republic, Chicago, New York

☆ The warped financial logic fueling America’s ‘doom loop’
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Adam Rogers | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Well, when a landlord doesn't lower the rent to get a new retail tenant, it's because that landlord can't. They're free to renegotiate or refinance the terms of mortgages, given the extraordinary downturn facing retail storefronts. And the future will be full of even higher vacancy rates, higher interest rates, and lower rents. Retail rents have flattened, she says, but the construction of retail space has not. Still, from an urban-planning standpoint, the way we finance retail space makes no sense.

Persons: You've, apocalypses, that's, It's, David Greensfelder, Greensfelder, Banks, what's, —, Larisa Ortiz, Ortiz, Justin Sullivan, Lorenzo Perez, I've, Rachel Meltzer, Kazuko Morgan, Perez, Culdesac, Something's, Meltzer, Adam Rogers Organizations: McKinsey & Company, Verizon, Republics, Harvard Locations: America, Urban, Manhattan, San Francisco, Market, vaya, What's, Phoenix, That's, LA, New York, Wakefield, Tempe , Arizona

☆ 'Bond King' Jeffrey Gundlach says buy long-dated Treasurys, with prices set to rebound going into a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Jeffrey Gundlach says long-duration Treasurys will make a good short-term trade in a recession. Gundlach also sees agency mortgage securities and commercial mortgage bonds as attractive. "We like long-term treasury bonds for the short-term trade going into a recession. "There has been about a 50% drawdown in the long bond, which means there is now potential for the long bond to go up in price." In calling a recession on the horizon, he also touted agency mortgage-backed securities and commercial mortgage bonds as attractive investments.

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, — Organizations: Service, DoubleLine Capital, AAA

☆ Are office buildings the next 'Big Short' or the next widow-maker trade? The trader behind the ubersuccessful mall short shares his playbook for making money without flaming out.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +16 min

Dan McNamara's Polpo Capital is shorting office real estate, a risky move that could be lucrative. If you're looking for a doomsday vision of commercial real estate, you can find it there. "I don't think this is the 'Big Short,'" McNamara told me. This doesn't mean he doesn't have a game plan to make money off cultural shifts that could forever change the state of commercial real estate. Lucas Jackson/ReutersWhere he's going longOne risk of shorting real estate is that it's more susceptible to what's known in real-estate circles as "extend and pretend."

Persons: Dan McNamara's, McNamara, it's, It's, shorting, Carl Icahn, Jim Chanos, Brendan McDermid, Dan McNamara, McNamara's, Braver Stern, Dan McNamara McNamara's, suede loafers, McNamara didn't, Josh Nester, Polpo, he's, Morgan Stanley, Kamil Sadik, Lucas Jackson, Manus Clancy, You've, David Tepper's, Trepp's Clancy, Clancy, David Tepper Organizations: Central Park, New, Polpo, New York University, Columbia, Kynikos Associates, Enron, Asset Management, Reuters, UBS, Co, Societe Generale, Securitized Credit Partners, Credit Suisse, MP, Fund, Bloomberg, of America, Simon Property, Federal Locations: Manhattan, Sixth, Central, New York City, New York, MatlinPatterson, America, China, Italy, Westchester , New York, Tribeca, York, Westchester, Waterford , Connecticut, Baltimore, San Francisco

☆ Tudor, Adage Capital among hedge funds making bets on NYC office space
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Basswood Capital, Adage Capital Partners and Paul Tudor Jones' Tudor Investment Corp were among the hedge funds that took new positions in real estate investment trusts that specialize in New York City office space last quarter, despite questions over how long work-from-home policies will weigh on the market, securities filings released on Monday showed. Basswood Capital purchased roughly 360,000 shares of Vornado Realty Trust and nearly 72,000 shares of SL Green, while Adage Capital Partners bought 205,000 shares of SL Green. Tudor Investment Corp bought nearly 152,000 shares of SL Green. Shares of Vornado are up nearly 7% for the year to date, while shares of SL Green are up slightly less than 1%. Basswood, Adage Capital, and Tudor Investment Corp did not respond to requests for comment.

Persons: Paul Tudor Jones, KBRA, David Randall, Richard Chang Organizations: Basswood, Capital Partners, Tudor Investment Corp, Basswood Capital, Vornado Realty Trust, SL Green, SL, New, Reuters, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: New York City

☆ US commercial property delinquencies rise further in July -report
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Matt Tracy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The rise in the rate reflects continued stress in the U.S. commercial real estate sector as a post-pandemic environment had more people working from home or shopping online. Office loans made up roughly 35% of the newly special serviced and delinquent loans in July rated by KBRA at $898.4 million. So far in July, multiple office properties have been transferred to special servicing due to imminent monetary default. The total special servicing balance on multi-loan CMBS sharply increased $830.7 million to $14 billion, the largest rise since August 2020, the report said. KeyBank's subsidiary KeyBank Real Estate Capital handles commercial real estate lending and servicing.

Persons: Amr Alfiky, KBRA, Chris Gorman, KeyCorp, Matt Tracy, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, KBRA, Estate Capital, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

Five hedge funds shared five trading ideas on global property markets, adding that they cannot reveal trading positions for regulatory reasons. CM REITs are companies that own mortgages of multi-family residential homes as well as commercial real estate loans. Cell phone data Litt bought to research a REIT run by Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE.N), showed that buildings which that were supposed to be almost fully occupied were only half full. Alexandria Real Estate responded pointing to public filings which said that it was the advancement of science and related intellectual property in Alexandria’s Labspace buildings, and not employee foot traffic that drove its demand for space. But Litt believes that the shift away from office working will also hurt life and sciences real estate, generally.

Persons: Jonathan Mizrachi, CMBSs, David Amaryan, Ben Hunsaker, Hunsaker, Jonathan Litt, Litt, ANSON, Moez Kassam, Vistry, Kassam, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alison Williams Organizations: Property, Capital, Beach, Beach Point Capital Management, REITs, Alexandria Real, Reuters, Vistry, Thomson Locations: York, Russia, Russia's, Ukraine, Armenia, Beach Point, Alexandria, Alexandria’s, London, Carolina, New York

☆ The 'time has come' for mortgaged-backed securities, says UBS. Here's what to know
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The AAA asset class in agency MBS can bring in a yield ranging as high as 5.5% to 6%, said Leslie Falconio, head of fixed income strategy in UBS Americas' chief investment office. "Agency mortgages are the cheapest part, on a risk-adjusted basis certainly, in the entire fixed income market." She specifically likes agency MBS and expects them to "materially outperform" in the second half of the year. Luis Alvarado, a fixed income strategist at Wells Fargo, also looks at MBS as a possible replacement for some investment-grade corporate debt in a fixed income portfolio. UBS' Falconio is also awaiting a better entry point for CMBS, as well as nonagency MBS.

Persons: Leslie Falconio, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, Falconio, Luis Alvarado, He's, Alvarado, Wells, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: MBS, AAA, UBS, Agency, Federal Reserve, CNBC Locations: UBS Americas, Wells Fargo

In recent weeks, banks have stepped up efforts to prevent such losses, according to commercial real estate (CRE) analysts and industry data. The 23 largest U.S. banks held 20% of office and downtown retail CRE loans, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve. Small banks also have high exposure to CRE loans as a percentage of their assets. About $2.1 billion of office loans pooled in CMBS matured in May, almost double the total amount from January through April, for example. If borrowers agreed to loan extensions, some $10.8 billion of office loans maturing this year would be pushed to later years, Moody's said.

Persons: Shaishav Agarwal, Agarwal, Steve Jellinek, Moody's, Kevin Fagan, Fagan, ” Fagan, Eliasaf, ”, Banks, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Matt Tracy, Paritosh Bansal, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, Deutsche Bank, U.S . Federal, Manhattan, Northwind, Thomson Locations: York

☆ JPMorgan upgrades this regional bank stock with limited exposure to commercial real estate, sees 25% gain
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

JPMorgan thinks there's a buying opportunity in regional bank Valley National. The bank upgraded Valley National Bancorp to overweight from neutral Monday with a $10 per share price target. Analyst Steven Alexopoulos noted that Valley National's exposure to the commercial real estate market is reasonably below peers which could shield the firm from loan headwinds. Valley National shares have tanked more than 29% in 2023. The stock dropped with the broader regional banking space after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this year.

Persons: Steven Alexopoulos, Alexopoulos, —, Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Bancorp, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank Locations: Silicon

☆ Property Owners May Soon Get a New Reason to Sell
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Carol Ryan | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Property buyers loaded up on unusually large amounts of variable debt during the pandemic. Photo: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg NewsThe eye-watering price of interest-rate hedges could push more property owners to put up a “For Sale” sign. Lenders in the U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market and banks usually require borrowers to hedge their interest-rate risk when they take out a variable-rate loan.

[1/2] David Hunt President and CEO, PGIM, speaks at the 2023 Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 1, 2023. As Wall Street money managers, banking executives and pension fund managers gathered at the Milken Institute Global Conference, the main topic over cocktails on Sunday night and in conference rooms the following morning was JPMorgan Chase & Co's (JPM.N) purchase of First Republic Bank. Policymakers, executives and investors at the conference said constrained lending as a result of banking sector regulation could choke off credit to the economy. Nevertheless, betting against bank stocks has been a profitable endeavor this year, which has seen the high-profile failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, in addition to First Republic and a state-engineered rescue of Credit Suisse by the Swiss government. The KBW Regional Banking Index, which fell 2.7% on Monday, is down almost 23.6% year-to-date, while First Republic’s shares are off 97% since January.

☆ The fallout from empty offices is coming. Here's where investors could see the pain
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

As concerns about regional banks roiled markets, investors weighed another threat: commercial real estate. Also, layered on top of the property value pressure, are the tightening credit conditions brought on by the recent turmoil in the banking sector. There is no doubt this scenario is a toxic mix for the capital-intensive real estate industry. At the moment, many experts say the real estate market isn't causing trouble for banks, but fears about the financial system are likely worsening conditions in real estate because liquidity is being reduced. The biggest concern is seeing how many other companies join Brookfield , Blackstone and Pimco in handing back the keys on office properties, Clancy said.

☆ The coming commercial real estate crash that may never happen
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Tim Mullaney | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

"There's a lot of headaches about calamity in commercial real estate," said Kevin Fagan, director of commercial real estate analysis at Moody's Analytics. But credit in commercial real estate has performed well until now, and it's far from clear that U.S. credit issues spreading outward from real estate is likely. Analysts raised concerns that developers might default on a big chunk of $3.1 trillion of U.S. commercial real estate loans Goldman Sachs says are outstanding. "We're well aware of the concentrations people have in commercial real estate," Powell said at a March22 press conference. But there are reasons to believe lending issues in commercial real estate will be contained, Fagan said.

☆ Investors Retreat From Commercial Real Estate Bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Sam Goldfarb | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Office vacancies are soaring in many cities, fueling concern that delinquencies and defaults will continue to climb. Prices of bonds backed by commercial mortgages have recently dropped to levels not seen since the early days of the pandemic, pointing to a growing economic threat stemming from office vacancies and rising interest rates. A small corner of the U.S. bond market, so-called commercial-mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, have taken a beating for over a year owing to fears that owners of business parks, high-rises and other office properties could default on loans extended at a time of different work habits and lower financing costs.

☆ JPMorgan says commercial real estate decline is intensifying. Beware these exposed stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

As commercial real estate comes under even greater pressure, investors should steer clear of these stocks that are overexposed to the sector, JPMorgan said. Commercial real estate is already facing more challenges this year than other parts of real estate, such as retail or lodging. Last year, office real estate dropped 37.6%, also on a total return basis. Given this, JPMorgan screened for a basket of stocks with direct and indirect exposure to U.S. commercial real estate. JPMorgan also identified pharmacy store chains Walgreens Boots Alliance and CVS Health as having direct exposure to any slowdown in commercial real estate.

☆ The stock market rally is over as commercial real estate risks begin to compound, JPMorgan's chief market strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock market rally is nearing its end as risks related to commercial real estate begin to rise, according to JPMorgan. The bank believes the highs for the stock market have been made in 2023, with further downside ahead. "Commercial real estate stresses appear to be compounding, amplified by banking shocks that could complicate their debt roll," Kolanovic warned. Kolanovic isn't the only one on Wall Street that's concerned about the sky-high debt pile that's coming due for commercial real estate. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said last week.

☆ Commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for regional banks and the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Commercial real estate is probably the next pain point for regional banks and the stock market, according to BofA. The bank noted that US regional banks account for 68% of all commercial real estate loans. The weakness in commercial real estate is evidenced in current market prices for stocks and debt tied to the sector. This is a perfect storm for regional banks because they have so much exposure to commercial real estate loans. According to Bank of America, US regional banks account for 68% of commercial real estate loans, much more than their mega-cap banking peers.

☆ Blackstone defaults on $562 mln Nordic property-backed CMBS - Bloomberg News
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 2 (Reuters) - Blackstone Inc (BX.N) has defaulted on a 531 million euro ($562.5 million) bond backed by a portfolio of offices and stores owned by Finnish company Sponda Oy, Bloomberg News reported, as rising interest rates hit European property values. "This debt relates to a small portion of the Sponda portfolio. We are disappointed that the Servicer has not advanced our proposal," Blackstone said in an emailed statement on Thursday. "We continue to have full confidence in the core Sponda portfolio and its management team," the company added. Blackstone's $71 billion unlisted real estate income trust (BREIT) has also been in hot water.

☆ As families and 'Parrotheads' flock to campgrounds and RV parks, institutional real-estate investors see their next big score
▼ + stars: | 2022-05-23 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +13 min

Investors are eyeing profits in campgrounds and RV parks as Americans flock to the great outdoors. Camp Margaritaville RV Resort and Cabana Cabins Auburndale, Central FloridaThe trend is also driven by demographics. Sam Zell's Equity Lifestyle Properties, another large REIT that invests in RV parks alongside mobile homes, has also been busy. While it's not clear how much big investors have thrown into RV campgrounds, manufactured housing communities as a whole have seen a burst of Wall Street financing. After looking hard at multifamily and industrial, he settled with RV parks.

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